week we looked at hurt horses as well as problematic
ALL LOOK BAD
reason why bad-looking horses win races is because you might find a
field, and not necessarily at the bottom, where
every single horse looks bad.
And face facts, unless they somehow cancel the race, SOMEBODY
has to win!† Iíve seen this happen countless times over the years and
more often than not at least once a day.†
looks alive, nobody has an attitude, nobody
warms up properly and from a wagering standpoint, NOBODY
should be betting that specific race!† But a bad-looking
horse does win this race!† You just gotta guess
which one.† I donít know about you, but whenever I guess, I usually
prefer to save my money for a race where I feel I have an edge,
not a myriad† of† implausible outcomes!
I get beaten in a race, there are a couple of ways that really unnerve
me.† One of the top ways is the dream trip.
dream trip occurs whenever a specific runner races in
exactly the right path(s) the entire race and/or
greatly benefits from a pace scenario in which heís not
involved (speed duel in front of him).† He could also get a dream trip
if he went unchallenged while the pacesetter thru slow fractions.† Or
maybe his closerís style of running, which usually labels him a loser,
today mysteriously becomes the running profile that is winning all the
sure if I sat here long enough I could come up with many exacting examples,
but suffice it to say a dream trip occurs whenever a specific
runner gets it all his own way.† And if you get
it all your own way, you can win races even if your donít look
that great physically or have the needed numbers to visit the
winnerís circle.† This type of horse beats me every week, or at least
it sure seems that way.
most frustrating of the dream trips (at
least for me) happens whenever some even-paced and gluey-footed goat
sits in the golden path behind a 2 or 3 horse race-long
duel and inherits the lead in the
final 3 jumps of the race after the pace battle
takes its toll on those who were part of it.†
is that aggravating---especially if you bet one of the duelers!†
what is even more frustrating is listening to the
crap come out of the mouth of the trainer and/or jockey if they do a
post-race interview with either.† After lighting up the board @ $86.40,
they make it seem as if this was their battle plan all along for this
specific race after going winless for the last
2 years.† Reality? †They were clueless
before the race and as shocked as you after it!
†Of course this 3-legged goat conditioned by Mr. Nobody wonít
win again until every other horse falls down in a race like
they did today!
over to the turf, dream trips come about much like they
do over the dirt, but unique to turf racing are the tight turns and
saving ground.† Obviously whenever you place one oval inside of another,
each time you do it, the turns get tighter and therefore more difficult
to negotiate to even the most nimble.
so-so looking horse getting the 1 or 2 hole as Del Mar
has an extreme advantage over any horse breaking from
the 9 hole outwards.†† The inside horse gets his dream trip by merely
saving ground to his outside foes.† This is doubly true
whenever the rails are out anywhere from 10 to 30 feet.†
path that a runner is removed from the rail on either turn costs
him a length.† If heís in the 5 path on both turns, he loses 4 lengths
on each turn for 8 total, while the inside so-so looking horse hugs
the rail thruout and saves those exact same 8 lengths
that the outside horse lost!†
win and lose races by nostril hairs, how huge is 8 lengths???††
The outside posts with rails extended simply assures
a bastard trip, as these horses usually run many more lengths
than their inside counterparts.
a final note and the dream trip you might want to look
at off-tracks and breeding.
trips could come about by a so-so looking dry-track
frontrunner who suddenly finds himself with a wet surface and
impeccable wet-track breeding.†
heís the only speed horse with this desired
off-track breeding, a dream trip is not only possible,
but most likely the eventual outcome.
the track is drying out yet muddy and speed-compromising
rather than wet and sloppy and speed-conducive, closers
are often the beneficiaries of dream trips because of
how they evenly distribute their energy during the race instead
of using too much too
early as do the frontrunners when dueling.†
could go on and on with specific scenarios, but if you drift back in
your own memory, youíll begin to remember countless times when
you said that the only reason this or that horse won this or that specific
race was because he got a dream trip and that this scenario
will never present itself again.