week we offered options of what to do if you lose your 1st
bet of the day. In re-reading part one, I noticed I omitted something
under the “sticking to your game plan section.”
scenario presented assumed that you only had a
single bet that specific day, but most often we have anywhere up to
3 or 4 races that might be very playable “on paper” on any given afternoon.
we lose our first wager, it is imperative that
we find out “why” before we move on to our second
wager of the day.
main reason is track bias.
though the running bias we saw yesterday is most likely still in place,
it could havechanged since
yesterday for no other reason that weekly track maintenance.
Del Mar for instance. After the last race on every Monday afternoon,
they cut the track, regrade the surface and in doing so redistribute
the excess dirt that has gravitated to the rail during the last 6 race
days of steady pounding. If track maintenance didn’t do this, sooner
or later all the dirt would become level and there would be no essential
“banking”. With no banking, the horses must slow down because the centrifugal
force is carrying them to the outside.
here is that if you know the maintenance schedule at your home oval,
you can often explain a bizarre performance by a specific horse or an
apparent subpar effort by your wagering selection.
could also be the culprit causing you to rip up your first bet. If
it rained overnight and stopped in the early morning, 6 hours later
the inside could be like quicksand.
the bias has changed and it is quite obvious to all to include
the hot dog lady, STOP BETTING AT ONCE!
Southern California for example. It is no secret that the 3 major ovals
(Del Mar, Santa Anita and Hollywood) are extremely kind
to frontrunners. At the moment of this writing (closing day
at Hollywood) 111 six furlong sprints have been run over the dirt at
Hollywood. A total of 64 out of those 111 races were won by horses
who were either setting the pace passing the ¼ pole or pressing the
leader and within a ½ length of him.
64 or 57.66% of all 111 six furlong races were won by very “early”
horses. That’s an incredible betting edge if you
have that specific knowledge.
that you do actually have this knowledge. You bet the first race, but
you get beat by a “deep closer”? Did your selection have
a legitimate excuse for losing such as physically
looking a wreck, a bad trip, poor start, or suicidal speed duel?
he did, proceed on the card where you have multiple bets.
he didn’t, was a frontrunner and got caught anywhere in
the final 1/16th, you might want to rethink
your strategy for upcoming potential wagers if you play a speed-crazed
dirt surface such as Hollywood’s and handicapped the day’s card for
we would like to “watch” the next race or two to see if
“deep closers” again fare well and close on the speed.
they do, yesterday’s speed bias is clearly gone
and so are your day’s remaining wagers (again assuming you handicapped
you do, DON’T TRY TO RE-HANDICAP the day’s card
while you are on track!
picked your today’s horses in the comfort of your home in soothing solitude
without P.A. systems blasting in your ears or people screaming like
maniacs at TV screens. Additionally if playing a track very similar
to Hollywood, your next day’s selections were made for the same frontrunning
track that you left the afternoon before.
the surface even mildly and anything and everything can and usually
my next bet after my first losing bet actually comes in the very next
race, I’ll pass until I’m dead sure
that my first mistake (where a deep closer won) was nothing more than
a one-time aberration.
once remarked to me by a trusted racetrack sage, “It costs you
nothing to pass a race”.
agree, but offer even more and you still can have a little “betting
you lose your first bet of the day, make your next wager a “mind”
bet where you never actually take your hard earned cash out
of your pocket.
you lose, you can only lose your mind----not
money needed to make wagers when you are, in fact, deadly sure!