good thing about publishing the weekly SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES
TO WATCH is that I have a very sophisticated audience
with a very healthy thirst for knowledge that can be turned into more
profitable play---be they weekend warriors or hardcore like
myself who need a fix of “horse” every single racing day!
long time a valued client called this week and asked me what I did if
I lost my first bet of the day.
Rather than give her a quick answer, I told her to read this week’s
handicapping article in the SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH.
thought her question an excellent one, because
there isn’t a handicapper alive that hasn’t been
faced with this specific situation and most likely faced with it at
least once a week!
we react to that losing first wager can often make
the difference between a winning and a losing day.
Before I offer my reply to her, lets look at this scenario.
up half the night handicapping tomorrow’s card and come up with only
1 “playable spot” for the next day. It comes
in the 2nd race.
bet and we lose. Boo-hoo. It isn’t the first
time, nor the last time this will occur in your betting career. You
learn to live with it!
We can do 1 of 2 things at this point.
can stick to our “game plan” and keep our hands in our
pockets for the rest of the day not betting again while taking copious
notes for the future, or we can try to “get out” for the
of you not familiar with the term “getting out”, it merely
means recouping all of one’s losses for the day by the end
of the last race.
matters little exactly where you lost or how much you’re behind for
the afternoon. If you’re financially “even” for the afternoon
(after being in a sea of red ink) as you exit the track,
you are said to have “gotten out” for the day avoiding
a disastrous dent in your betting bankroll.
to your “game plan” and merely taking notes all day for potential future
bets is highly advisable, but tough to implement and religiously stick
to. This is doubly true if your only “pick” for the day was in an early
can pass with little or no problem because they know that they’ll be
back tomorrow, so there’s no need to panic and try to “get out” or rush
a marginal bet.
don’t live in day-tight compartments where their self worth comes down
to a single bet (win or lose) for any specific afternoon.
look at the bigger picture. They
concern themselves only with how they are doing for the meet (or year),
not with single events (race, races, or simply
a bad day) along the way.
but non-professional players are a bit different and always seem to
have a “hunch” in every race even though the professional
knows that certain races might not warrant a bet under any circumstances.
“day-tripper” knows that in the long run, his bankroll will quickly
deflate by wagering on “hunches” every race for betting “action”.
seasoned players are usually not in attendance on a daily basis
though frequent participants, they almost feel like they are “obligated
to bet” because they can only wager a day or 2
a week instead of 5 or 6 like a pro. If they do bet every race or nearly
every race, they can only end up in the red, because betting
nothing more than a “hunch” will literally bury
them in the long run.
gets rich betting hunches!
betting “hunches” are all the lost souls walking around trackside with
nothing more than a program in hand. No homework, no day work, no paddock
work---just betting jockeys, trainers, post positions etc. or “hunches”.
even if planning to stick to your “game plan” of only one wager for
that specific day, a horse might jump out at you
on rare occasions as you are doing your paddock
work for future bets.
is nothing wrong with intensely following this horse right up until
loading and wagering if and only if you have a
very valid reason to do so.
reasons might include the scratch of the prohibitive race favorite or
the race favorite showing up in the paddock with new
negative equipment such as a barshoe, martingale,
“blowout” or a “stop”. Or perhaps he looks a physical
wreck and is having a “bad hair” day!
is carved in stone in our great game and opportunity could be around
any corner in any situation!
But if you find yourself betting past
your intended stopping point (win or lose) every
single day or most of them, you’re “pushing” bets, you’re
positively pushing your luck and eventually you’ll be
pushing yourself into a hole!
only way to really judge yourself in this game
is with a balance sheet at the end of a year much like the stock market
and one’s investment portfolio.
you buy every stock?
course not, so why should or
would you bet every single race?
as some stocks aren’t worth the investment and potential loss, some
races offer nothing but very steep downside