that we’ve profiled all the meaningful imported turf newcomer trainers,
what do we do with this information to help us pick more winners?
off, pay strict attention to each
trainer’s strengths and/or weaknesses that we listed earlier,
be they atop the “A” list, or on the bottom with the “D and
who can and who can’t and for what reasons, often
points to a winner!
so there are no misunderstandings, if you have
an “A” imported turf trainer and a “C” trainer both with
new imports in the same race, you don’t
AUTOMATICALLY dismiss the “C” runner!
we all know, nothing is “for certain” in our great
an “A” trainer will surely win with more
turf imports than a “C” trainer in the long run,
“A” trainers simply don’t win every single race, nor
every single time they face less talented imported turf trainers.
horse runs the race, not the trainer!
as handicappers are always looking for “ironclad” rules or a way to
attach a numerical rating to everything so we can compare to others.
Allegedly, this somehow makes us feel more comfortable when we walk
up to the mutuel windows to back our opinion with cold hard cash.
simply can’t do that in this “imported” situation.
a perfect example.
we have a two-turn turf route race in front of us. The “C”
trainers’ runner draws the
post position. The “A” trainers’ horse catches the 12 hole.
Further, not a SINGLE HORSE has won from
the 12 post position since the start of the meet that is now
49 days old with 47 turf route races completed.
else being equal to include the likely abilities of both
horses whom you have never before seen run, do you like the “A”
horse or the “C” horse?
you picked the horse of trainer “A”, I have some “swamp”
land in Del Mar that I can sell you for only $29.95 an acre!
pick the “C” horse 11 out of 10 times due to the
HUGE hostile bias against
the 12 post position of the “A” horse and the very obvious
and very favorable bias (saving ground) towards the “C”
horse. Again, keep in mind that we handicapped these horses as being
about equal in overall ability.
the 12 horse (“A”) beats you (for any number of reasons to include
a troubled trip by the “C” horse or a “dream trip” for the “A”
horse from the impossible 12 hole), then he beats you!
very next time he runs, should he draw the inside and physically look
as good as he did today, you can bet the farm to recoup
today’s looses. If he was the 1st horse to
win from the
hole in a 49 day-old meet, imagine how he’ll perform
if saving some ground!
this might be a grossly simplified example, it was used to show you
that you have to pay strict attention to not only our “A” and
“B” list, but to our lesser gradings if
a specific situation such as the above unexpectedly presents
another plausible scenario.
caught the post position bias and accordingly decided to bet the “C”
horse at the mutuel windows just as soon as you watch the pre-race warm-ups
of both horses.
each is just fine, but at 2 minutes to post, the “C”
horse suddenly drops the rider and runs off very
quickly for 3 furlongs before getting caught by an outrider
and returned to the humiliated jockey for remounting and loading into
the starting gate.
do you do here?
you ignore what you just witnessed, or does the wasted
3 furlongs of extra effort before the start by the riderless “C”
horse give back what he had gained by the very positive 2 post position
verses the hostile12 post position?
yes and maybe no, but it would stop me from betting
either! Most likely I’d stand there and just “watch”
the race while making a “mind” bet. That way, I could only lose my
“mind” and not my cold hard cash. There is another race in 30 minutes
and if not today, there are always the possibilities of tomorrow!
is no need to “push” a bet once the
integrity of your initial handicapping has been violated. Continuing
with the same betting intentions at this point suddenly becomes little
more than total downside risk! And it matters
not if you are talking about new imported turf runners or hardened fleet
your handicapping is compromised (even a little bit), PASS THE
will cost you nothing and if your early selection loses, you feel like
a King for being so damn smart. If he wins, you slap yourself on the
back and tell yourself what a superb handicapper you really are.
I sat here long enough I would unearth many other scenarios where you
would react differently depending on circumstances. That’s not the
scope here. All that is trying to be conveyed is that nothing is “carved
in stone” with the exception of your name on your tombstone.
“A” to “F” list was formulated to give you nothing more than
a starting point to begin your investigative work.