good book on money management will most likely make reference to the
program morning line at some time during the writing. Additionally,
they’ll teach you exactly how to make your own personal morning line.
is more than worth the effort each and every day to make a “line” on
any race in which you think you might have a bet.
you well know, the morning line is an attempt to establish likely
post-time odds. While once in a while the morning line and “reality”
come close to matching, far more often they are miles apart in final
composition. These differences occur not only with the race favorite
and the likely 2nd and 3rd place finishers, but
with all the final post-time real
odds on all horses!
winter/spring 2001 meet at Santa Anita amazed me as far as morning lines
went. I don’t know if there was a change in the track’s linemaker,
as I generate my program from the internet and don’t get the pages of
the official track program. I guess had I really been all that interested
in names, I would have looked at one to see who is who and who does
what-----clear down to the hot dog ladies. Names on a program matter
little. What matters are mistakes.
discrepancies between my morning line on races in which
I had an interest and the official morning linemaker’s, were often light
years apart in both directions and partially
the reason for my very successful meet.
my morning line had a specific runner listed at 5-2 and
the suspected race favorite, he would sometimes have the same
horse at 7-5 on the official track program and usually render
the race unplayable.
Anita is just like most racetracks in the world. If the track program
lists a horse @ 7-5, they inevitably go off at even money or lower------win
or lose! Granted, there are “special” times
when even money and 4-5 is literally “Manna from Heaven”, but it isn’t
every race and it surely isn’t every day!
we all know, nobody is getting rich betting even money
win percentage would have to be over 50% day-in and day-out to make
money in the long run. While we’ve all experienced exceptional periods
of brilliance where we actually do pick over 50% winners
for a short time (be it a week, a month or a meet), inevitably
it turns and heads south once again until we hit our own personal “norms”
or expected levels of successful play.
brings us back to our subject matter.
drives our game.
creates the odds that are reflected in the wagering pools.
is the main reason you have a profit or loss at the end of the day or
the end of the year.
can be your best friend or your worst enemy----it all depends!
time to take advantage of a specific situation is when your personal
morning line and the official track linemaker are far apart
goes without saying that you should NEVER handicap
any race with odds included in your past performances. Never,
never, never (ad nauseum) look at someone‘s odds before
you have completed your own handicapping. If you look
at the odds first, it can consciously or subconsciously influence your
thinking and usually does!
the other hand, if you’ve done your homework, you can sometimes exploit
obvious mistakes in the official morning line where horses are listed
at far higher odds than their “fair market value” in this
afternoon. And if you’ve made your own personal morning line completely
independent of others, you know exactly what you are willing
to take on a specific runner if he shows up in the paddock looking flawless
and warms up properly in the pre-race.
sometimes be flabbergasted at how much a track program, a public newspaper
selector, a radio show, selection services etc., can influence final
they be wrong when creating a false favorite,
you can hop aboard the “gravy train”.
me give you a perfect example.
weekly publication (SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH) has
a section called our “Master No-No List”. On this invaluable list are
horses who last ran with negative equipment such as “blowouts”, “stops”,
martingales or barshoes. (Barshoes are not listed in any publications
for Del Mar, Hollywood Park or Santa Anita as the tracks refuse to supply
this information to Equibase and the Racing Form----as a result of this
we, are the only service that publishes a weekly and cumulative
we are standing in the paddock for each and every race looking at feet
and making copious notes to transfer to our Master No-No List, we know
whose feet are bad or who is hitting himself and has NO
chance of winning.
were countless times during this elongated 83 day
meet when the official track program would list this or that horse as
the race favorite and all who receive the SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES
TO WATCH positively knew that the horse in
question had absolutely NO chance of winning because
he last out ran in a barshoe, or was hitting himself, or needed a martingale
due to a serious confirmation defect.
is “real” inside knowledge and very exploitable
you can catch the official morning linemaker asleep on his feet by either
creating a false favorite or by simply missing the boat on a specific
“now” horse or whatever, this is the time
to take the rubber band off the wallet or to pull out that credit voucher
and totally UNLOAD.
there is always risk with any form of gambling,
at least you’ll be wagering with upside risk, rather
than wagering on very negative animals with nothing but
downside risk and a quick ride to bankruptcy!