the past couple of years, I’ve found myself paying attention to “trends”
or “windows of time” where something is occurring in front of me that
I can capitalize on at once.
me give you a very simplistic example.
walk into your track on any given day and the running bias has done
a “180” for any number of reasons ranging from weather to track maintenance.
Whereas your track most often greatly favors speed, you watch the first
3 races (in which you had no betting interests) be won by deep
comes the 4th race which you intended to bet before entering
the track today and you only like 2 horses---a frontrunner and a deep
closer. Who do you bet?
all got that no-brainer correct!
every day more subtle aberrations are playing themselves
out that could put more money in your pocket if you pay attention.
Now I’m not suggesting you bet these isolated aberrant situations blindly,
but rather be aware that they are happening.
another example. Have you ever taken notice of how hard
a jockey rides on any given afternoon after he
has 2 wins on the card. He’s going for his “hat trick”.
Most jockeys put forth an extra effort on each
of their remaining mounts until scoring number
3 for that day. When winning a race by a nose, it can often be because
a jockey has extra adrenaline pumping thru his veins that somehow reaches
his mount. Once a jockey has 2 wins for the afternoon and you like
him later in the card, be rest assured he’ll most likely ride
the skin off every remaining horse’s neck going for his “hat
the following day after any jockey has won 3 or
more races, they seem to have a mental letdown. Either
yesterday’s euphoria hasn’t yet left them or perhaps they are simply
tired from yesterday’s pleasant winning ordeal and their tanks
are on empty.
we’re on jockeys, closely associated with positive rides, there are
some jockeys on the Southern California circuit that I like to see win
a race early on the day’s card before mounting
a horse I intend to bet.
sure you have the same “spotty” type of riders on your circuit if not
the same as mine. Some days they ride like a Laffit Pincay (who rides
strong every single day, every
single race!) and other days they ride as if today were the first
time they ever sat upon a horse!
the years I’ve come to the conclusion that much like ourselves, some
jockeys have very good days and very bad days. Eddie D’s well-documented
chronic sinus problem has most scratching their heads when he’s having
an off day (unless they know of the problem). I too have a sinus condition
and when erupting, the last thing I feel like doing is standing up let
alone riding a horse! So in Eddie’s case it’s physical.
jockeys as mentioned above, have mental letdowns on any given afternoon
for any number of reasons ranging from personal problems to simple weariness
from overwork. If you plan on “betting the farm” this afternoon on
a specific horse late in the card, simply ask yourself if your rider
is “awake” and riding well or just going thru the motions
this afternoon---and be honest with yourself!!!
If he’s breaking “speed” horses dead last, or racing horses wide for
no reason, or getting caught in blind switches and/or trapped on the
rail, or running over the very worst part of the track, he could very
well be “asleep on his feet”--------at least for that
good trend is a Daily Double with the first half being won by a jockey
who sits upon your choice in the 2nd half of that specific
double. If he’s on a “live” mount in the 2nd half, you’ll
get a “ride”! This is doubly true if he sits upon a chalky
favorite in the 2nd half of that double. He
and his agent both knew their 2nd half
of the double was “very live” and most likely their
money is “down” for the sweep! (And yes, I know that jockeys
aren’t allowed to bet and they don’t ever bet-----yeah,
and Mother Theresa was really a “commie pinko bastard” in drag!)
I think we’re moving along well here and you get the drift, so let me
give you more food for thought.
trends are easier to catch because they can ride up to 9 or more horses
each day, whereas few trainers start more than 2, 3, or at most 4 horses
a day. Trainer aberrations and trends are there in front
of you, they‘re just a bit more subtle and require
you to really tune in!
a trainer suddenly gets “hot” or is reported so by the Racing Form or
on your local sports page, his “hotness” started long before it
made it to print! By the time the general public and most “beat”
writers for the Racing Form catch on to this trainer’s “gravy
train” pushing everything he starts down to even money or lower,
your profitability is long gone! You have to spot
the change in any specific barn as it is occurring,
not after everyone to include your favorite “hot
dog lady” has a direct line on this “hot”conditioner.
do you do this? Simple! In most cases you begin to notice a specific
trainers’ horses all seem to look a bit better
in the paddock day after day and run a bit better until the
entire barn looks very strong. Often coughing
and colds plague an entire shed row making all sick. Once the malady
finds a new home, the beleaguered barn comes alive like a crocus in
spring. Everything starts winning!
is obviously when to bet them regardless of what the “backpaper”
in the Racing Form might imply. If you don’t, once the horse
wins, the cat is out of the bag-----the horse you’re getting
$14.60 on today, will only pay $3.80 next out if fortunate enough to
string 2 victories together.
more subtle are owner trends. If you closely scrutinize
every large barn on your circuit (and even some of the smaller ones),
you’ll notice that some trainers win more races for some
of their owners than others. This can be for any number of reasons,
but the main one is that some owners simply have better racing
stock even though they employ the same trainer.
Just because a certain trainer has a 25% win percentage, this admirable
performance is NOT always equally spread amongst
all the owners in equal proportions.
I’d like to address “hot” or “now” horses. By this I
don’t necessarily mean a “horse for the course’ who only seems to win
at a specific track. By “hot” horses I mean rising stars
much like we offer each week in our HORSES ON THE UPGRADE or
STRONG MAIDEN PERFORMANCE sections in our SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HORSES TO WATCH. We give you the good ones early on
in their careers, so that you can maximize your profitability
long before everyone else knows of the horses’
only scratched the surface of “tuning in” to current situations as
there are countless and very profitable scenarios---but I hope that
I’ve got you thinking and moving in the right direction!